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InstaForex Gertrude 10-10-2015 01:57 AM

Wave Analysis by InstaForex
 
Dear forum members,

Me and my colleagues are going to provide you with the latest analysis reviews. Please, follow our analysis and you will be informed about Forex. Hope, our reviews will help you to increase the efficiency of your trading.

The source is instaforex.com.

InstaForex Gertrude 01-16-2016 02:20 AM

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 15, 2016

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 169.85. The pair is reversing down and stays below its key resistance at 169.85. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 167. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness towards 166.50.

Trading Recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 167. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 166.50. The pivot point stands at 169.85. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 170.60 and the second target at 171.35.

Resistance levels: 170.60, 171.35, 172
Support levels: 167, 166.50, 165.75

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-19-2016 07:42 AM

Daily analysis of USDX for January 19, 2016

The H1 chart shows that USDX is consolidating above the 200 SMA and the bullish outlook remains unchanged, as the index is trying to break the resistance level at 99.22. It would also break the range where the US dollar has been trapped for several sessions in this month. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory, so be cautious when trading in the long-side below the 99.22 level.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49
H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-20-2016 07:44 AM

Daily analysis of USDX for January 20, 2016

The USDX is still trading above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, but the resistance level of 99.22 is rejecting the current price action. Also, we should note that moving average is offering dynamic support at the current stage. However, a breakout above the level of 99.22 will open the doors to test the level of 99.49. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49
H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-21-2016 07:51 AM

Daily analysis of USDX for January 21, 2016

At the H1 chart, the Index is doing a rebound above the 200 SMA and now we can expect a re-test of the resistance level around the 99.22 level. However, we're still seeing a sideways consolidation in progress above that moving average and we shouldn't discard a possible deep pullback towards the 98.39 level.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49
H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-22-2016 07:43 AM

Daily analysis of USDX for January 22, 2016

The USDX had a very volatile session on Thursday, as the index did a strong pullback after a bullish momentum gained above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. However, the moving average is still acting as dynamic support and a push higher could move the index to the level of 100.00 in order to test it in a mid-term term. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49
H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-23-2016 02:46 AM

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 22, 2016

The USD/CHF pair is likely to advance further. The intraday technical picture of USD/CHF is positive now after yesterday's strong rebound. A support base around 1.0065 has been formed, which suggests stabilization. Besides, a bullish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is also bullish, displaying upward momentum. Therefore, as long as 1.0065 holds on the downside, further advance is expected to 1.0175 (Jan. 19 top) and 1.0214 in extension.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0175 and the second target at 1.0215. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0030 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9990. The pivot point is at 1.0065.

Resistance levels: 1.0175, 1.0215,1.0245
Support levels: 1.0030, 0.9990, 0.9955

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-26-2016 06:43 AM

Daily analysis of USDX for January 26, 2016

USDX has found resistance at the 99.49 level and now we can see a decline towards the support level of 99.22 where the nearest moving average (200) is located . It seems the bullish bias will remain alive, as the index is still trading above that price zone. Besides, there are no significant bearish patterns formations on the road.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.49 / 99.69
H1 chart's support levels: 99.22 / 98.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD index breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.49, take profit is at 99.69, and stop loss is at 99.28.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-28-2016 07:34 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 28, 2016

When the European market opens, some economic news on the Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish Unemployment Rate, German Prelim CPI m/m, and German Import Prices m/m is due to be released. The US will reveal economic data on the Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0947.
Strong Resistance:1.0941.
Original Resistance: 1.0930.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0919.
Target Inner Area: 1.0894.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0869.
Original Support: 1.0858.
Strong Support: 1.0847.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0841.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 01-29-2016 07:06 AM

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Januari 29, 2016

In Asia, Japan will release data on the BOJ Press Conference, Housing Starts y/y, BOJ Core CPI y/y, BOJ Outlook Report, Monetary Policy Statement, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, National Core CPI y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, and Household Spending y/y. The US will deliver economic data on the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Goods Trade Balance, Employment Cost Index q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, and Advance GDP q/q. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 119.20.
Resistance. 2: 118.97.
Resistance. 1: 118.74.
Support. 1: 118.45.
Support. 2: 118.22.
Support. 3: 117.99.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 02-01-2016 07:51 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 1, 2016

Wave summary:
A very strong rally on Friday which took place after BOJ's decision to adopt the negative interest rate, looked impulsive and if a breakout above important resistance at 132.44 is seen, then we will change our preferred count to above. This count shows that an expanded flat correction we have been tracking since late December 2013 terminated at 126.05 in mid-April 2015 and was followed by an impulsive wave (i) to 141.04 and the decline from 141.04 to 126.14 was a very deep wave (ii). A breakout above 132.44 will call for wave (iii) higher to at least 150.16. If, however resistance at 132.44 is able to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure, the very complex corrective corrective pattern could still be unfolding.

Trading recommendation: We will await the outcome of the test of the resistance-line before making the next move.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 02-02-2016 06:15 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 02, 2016

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as PPI m/m, Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Unemployment Change.The US will release the economic data too such as Total Vehicle Sales, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0947.
Strong Resistance:1.0941.
Original Resistance: 1.0930.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0919.
Target Inner Area: 1.0894.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0869.
Original Support: 1.0858.
Strong Support: 1.0847.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0841.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 02-02-2016 07:10 AM

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 02, 2016

In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction, Monetary Base y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Total Vehicle Sales, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 121.40.
Resistance. 2: 121.16.
Resistance. 1: 120.92.
Support. 1: 120.63.
Support. 2: 120.40.
Support. 3: 120.16.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 02-03-2016 06:21 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 03, 2016

When the European market opens, economic news on the Retail Sales m/m, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI is due to be released.The US will deliver the economic data on the Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0970.
Strong Resistance:1.0964.
Original Resistance: 1.0953.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0942.
Target Inner Area: 1.0917.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0892.
Original Support: 1.0881.
Strong Support: 1.0870.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0864.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 02-03-2016 07:37 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 3, 2016

Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has taken a position from where a strong rally through 1.7007 and more importantly a breakout above 1.7271 can be seen anytime now. But this scenario needs support at 1.6564 to protect the downside for a breakout above minor resistance at 1.6917 and then at 1.7007. The breakout below 1.6564 will be yet another disappointment which delays the expected rally higher closer to 1.6487 and maybe even closer to 1.6370 before higher again.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6837 and have placed our stop at 1.6537. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6640 or upon a breakout above 1.6780 and use the same stop at 1.6537.

More analysis - at instaforex.com

InstaForex Gertrude 07-12-2017 04:28 AM

The market is at rest

Yesterday's data on the US and the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, did not give proper to the US dollar.

According to the report of the research group, Conference Board, the index if employment trends in the US for May of this year was revised down to 133.32 points from 133.70 points.

The growth in consumer lending in the US also indicates a stable situation in the US economy.

According to the data provided by the statistics agency, consumer lending in the US for May this year increased by $ 18.41 billion following a growth of $ 12.9 billion in the previous month of April.

Yesterday's speech by the Federal Reserve representative, John Williams, did not lead to major changes in the market.

Williams said that if inflation slows down, it will be in favor of further gradual tightening of monetary policy. This means another increase in interest rates this years is a reasonable baseline scenario.

He also noted that at the present time, there are a lot of signs that the economy is strengthening including the growth of salaries in the US which is in line with expectations. In his opinion, the US fiscal policy is on an unstable path and the reforms that the White house wants to hold will help to improve the situation.

With regard to the reduction of balance, Williams said that it makes sense to begin the normalization as soon as possible this year.

In general, the Federal Reserve representative along with his colleagues did not say anything new. Because of this, the market reaction to his statements did not follow.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, everything remains the same.

The support level at 1.381 is important since the current upward trend formed on last July 5 will depend on it. A breakthrough in this area will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a decrease in the trading instruments that are already in the support level of 1.1330. If the buyers of the European currency manage to tighten it to the middle level of the channel at 1.1410, then it is likely that the bull scenario will continue to update with the monthly highs of 1.1440 to 1.1470.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 08-08-2017 05:22 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 08, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Mortgage Delinquencies, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1855.
Strong Resistance:1.1848.
Original Resistance: 1.1837.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1826.
Target Inner Area: 1.1798.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1770.
Original Support: 1.1759.
Strong Support: 1.1748.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1741.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 10-25-2017 06:09 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 25, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction and German Ifo Business Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, New Home Sales, HPI m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1815.
Strong Resistance:1.1808.
Original Resistance: 1.1797.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1786.
Target Inner Area: 1.1758.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1730.
Original Support: 1.1719.
Strong Support: 1.1708.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1701.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 11-09-2017 04:45 AM

Gold recalled its old ties

The uncertainty surrounding the tax reform, the growth of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the visit of Donald Trump to Asia allowed the bulls in gold to restrain their opponents who are on the offensive. There were rumors in the market that the start of the transformation of the fiscal system in the US could be postponed for a year due to the fact that the US economy is in good shape. If you add an incentive to this, it will increase the risks of overshooting inflation and a future recession. Given its current position, there is no certainty that the reform will be passed through the Congress: Democrats criticize the bill because of the losses of the middle class, while the number of dissatisfied Republicans is increasing. In general, the revision of the tax system is seen as a "bullish" factor for gold. Therefore, the problems with its implementation allows buyers of the XAU/USD to strike a counterattack.

Investors have raised their share of haven assets in portfolios, looking at events in the Middle East. The mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, the attack on Riyadh by rebels from Yemen, the conflict between Turkey and Kurdistan, and the dissatisfaction of Donald Trump with decisions of his predecessors on Iran's nuclear program have pushed up oil and bond prices. The yield of the latter is under pressure, which, due to the existing correlation, has a positive effect on precious metals.

Dynamics of gold and yield of US bonds

Source: Trading Economics.

An additional factor in supporting gold is U.S. President Donald Trump's tour in Asia. In Japan, Trump has already tickled the nerves of local businessmen, accusing them of non-commercial and non-mutually beneficial trade. In China, the US president raised the issue of ending its economic ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, which certainly provoked North Korea's discontent. Let me remind you that one of the most important drivers of almost 12% of the XAU/USD rally since the beginning of the year have been geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula and the US protectionist policy.

At the same time, from the point of view of macroeconomics, the precious metal's situation is not the best. While the euro area and Japan's GDP are growing above the trend, the US economy has been expanding by 3% or more for two consecutive quarters, and is also prepared to increase the rate. In the case of tax reform, investors prefer risky assets. Moreover, global inflation is characterized by sluggish growth. In this scenario, real world market rates have the prerequisites for a movement upwards, which should be considered as a "bearish" factor for XAU/USD.

In my opinion, the situation in the Middle East will soon stabilize, and the absence of conflicts with North Korea and the passage of tax reform through the Congress would raise the demand for the US dollar and return the quotes of precious metals futures for a downward short-term trend.

A technically successful test of the upper limit of the consolidation range at $1262-1281 per ounce will increase the risks of rising gold prices towards $1,299 and $1,320. On the other hand, a breakthrough of support at $1262 will allow the "bears" to count on the implementation of the targets for 161.8% and 200% for the AB=CD pattern.

Gold, daily chart

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 11-10-2017 04:52 AM

European Commission report helped the euro

The euro rose against the US dollar after the release of a report from the European Commission, in which the forecasts for GDP growth and lower unemployment were revised in a positive way.

In the first half of the day, recent data indicated growth in Germany's foreign trade balance, even despite the decline in exports, as imports decreased even more compared to the previous month.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, Germany's exports in September 2017 declined by 0.4% compared to August, while imports fell 1.0%.

Germany's foreign trade surplus with revision amounted to 21.8 billion euros against 21.3 billion dollars in the previous month.

On Thursday, the Bank of France released a report, which indicated that the eurozone's second largest economy might grow by 0.5% at the end of this year. Good support by the end of the year can be provided by France's manufacturing sector and the services sector.

As I mentioned above, the report of the European Commission was published on Thursday, according to which the eurozone GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.7%. In 2018, the economy could grow by 2.1% against the previous forecast of 1.8%, and in 2019 predicts the growth of the eurozone's GDP at 1.9%.

There are also good moments that can be found in the labor market. Economists expect unemployment in the eurozone in 2017 to drop to the level of 9.1% against the previous forecast of 9.4%. In 2018, the same indicator should decrease to 8.5% against the previous forecast of 8.9%, and in 2019 will drop to the level of 7.9%.

According to the European Commission, at present, the eurozone is on track for its fastest economic growth in a decade, while in the labor market there is still a weak wage growth and a significant amount of unused resources.

However, everything is not so positive when it comes to inflation. The report was revised for the worse. The European Commission forecasts inflation in the euro area at 1.5% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.6%. In 2018, inflation is expected at 1.4% against the previous forecast of 1.3%, and in 2019 the level is set at 1.6%.

The sharp growth in the euro in the first half of this year forced economists to revise their forecasts, and the curtailment of the mitigation program and incentive measures could further hurt the inflationary picture, which the European Central Bank pays close attention to.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 11-17-2017 05:52 AM

Bulls on the euro need a breather

The US dollar managed to partially restore its positions against the European currency after a major decline, which was observed for several days in a row.

Inflation data in the US slightly affected the quotes of the EUR / USD, but the statements by the officials of the Fed, which were scheduled for the second half of the day, led to the closure of a portion of long positions in the euro.

Fed spokesman Eric Rosengren said yesterday that the data favors higher interest rates in December, and low inflation gives the Fed space for a gradual increase in rates. In his opinion, a very low unemployment rate, which is likely to fall below 4%, will sooner or later push up inflation. Rosengren also believes that the banking system is now in a much better state than before the recession.

Today there will be a number of important data on the US labor market, which can confirm the forecasts of officials of the Fed.

As for the technical picture, the large resistance level 1.1855, which coincides with the upper limit of the medium-term side channel. Only its breakdown can form a new upward wave, capable of updating the annual highs.

The Australian dollar is in the middle of the last five years.

According to the Australian National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in October, while economists expected it to remain unchanged at 5.5%. The number of employees in October increased by 3,700, while the expected growth of 19,000. The number of full-time jobs increased by 24,000.

Despite this, many analysts say that the pressure on the Australian dollar is due to weak growth in the third quarter of this year, as well as to the Central Bank's lowering of the long-term inflation forecasts, which crosses out the likelihood of an upswing in interest rates in Australia.

As for the technical picture of the AUD / USD, the trade is near important support levels located in the 0.7580 area and 0.7535, where large buyers can return to the market again. Counting on a more powerful upward momentum, 0.7675, 0.7775, which will lead to an immediate increase in the Australian dollar to the areas of 0.7675 and 0.7735.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 11-29-2017 05:31 AM

Stress tests and forecast for world economic growth

The euro continued to decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, November 28, despite good data on lending to private eurozone companies.

According to the report, lending in October rose, indicating the recovery of the eurozone economy.

According to the European Central Bank, lending to private sector non-financial companies in October this year had increased by 2.9% compared to the same period last year. Household lending increased by 2.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The monetary aggregate M3 in October this year increased by 5%.

Data on the optimism of German consumers slightly supported the euro during the afternoon. According to the report of the German institute GfK, the leading index of consumer sentiment remained unchanged in December compared to November and amounted to 10.7 points. Economists had expected that the index would rise to 10.8 points in December. As stated in the report, the sentiments of German households remain at a high level, as well as expectations about the future.

On Tuesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released a report, which raised forecasts for the growth of the world economy for the next year. This happened due to a good rate of growth in the US and the euro area.

According to the data, for this year, forecasts have been raised to 2.2% for the US economy and 2.4% for the euro area economy. In 2018, it is expected that the US economy will grow by 2.5%, and the eurozone - by 2.1%. Without any changes, forecasts for the growth of China's economy remained unchanged, but the data for Canada was revised downwards.

The OECD expects the world economy to grow by 3.6% this year, while in September it was forecasting an increase of 3.5%. In 2018, world growth should be at the level of 3.7%.

The British pound declined after the release of stress tests from the Bank of England.

Stress tests of the Bank of England were conducted at Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group, Standard Chartered. It must be noted that back in 2016, Barclays and RBS failed stress tests, but then increased their capital.

The report shows that the Bank of England decided to raise the requirements for the capital buffer to 1% by the end of 2018 from 0.5% at present. This is done primarily in order to protect the banks of the UK from the adverse effects on the part of Brexit. The Bank of England also said that the current scenario of stress tests implies risks that may be associated with Brexit, and therefore the British banking system will continue to support the economy in the event of an unorganized Brexit.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 12-01-2017 05:38 AM

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 01, 2017

The pair remains following a bullish structure above the 200 SMA at H1 chart and looks forward to testing the 1.3541 level, amid USD weakness against the Pound. Corrective moves might happen in the short-term, with the nearest target placed around the 200 SMA and the 1.3303 level. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, favoring to the downside.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3440 / 1.3541
H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3244

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3440, take profit is at 1.3541 and stop loss is at 1.3337.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 12-04-2017 04:50 AM

The dollar weakens against the backdrop of political threats

Adjusted data on US GDP in the third quarter were better than expected, the growth rate was revised to 3.3%, and by all means, the US economy is recovering successfully. This is despite the fact that the Congress has not yet approved the draft of the tax reform.

However, the main factor of positive growth is not so much the growth of the economy as the growing consumer activity. According to the updated data, in the third quarter, the personal consumption expenditure index was 1.4%, and not 1.3%, as previously reported. This was released the day after the data on personal incomes in October also outperformed forecasts, with growth at 0.4% against expectations of 0.3%.

The market reacted positively to the reports, while the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector released by ISM on Friday made it possible to revise the forecast for US GDP in the fourth quarter to reach 3.5%, reflecting generally confidently positive expectations.

At the same time, it should be noted that the positive dynamics of consumer activity is not due to fundamental changes. The simplest calculations show that the growth of expenses is not based on revenue growth, but on the growth of lending, which in turn reflects certain hopes associated with the future tax reform. The growth of expenses in terms of the potentially able-bodied population is growing steadily, while personal savings are falling and have already reached the pre-crisis level of 10 years ago.

Thus, a certain revival of the consumer sector is associated with hopes for a reduction in tax pressure. If, however, the approval of the reform program in the Congress faces difficulties, then in this case one can expect a sharp decline in consumer activity and an increase in deflationary expectations.

The grounds for such fears are: On Friday, the Senate postponed the vote on the tax reform, the stumbling block was the report of the Tax Committee, from which it follows that the reform will not lead to filling the budget and the deficit will remain at the level of at least $1 trillion in a 10-year perspective. The economic analysis of the tax reform plan by the Minister of Finance Mnuchin has not yet been released. Therefore, the financial effect of the reforms may not be the same as the government represents. Before the markets closed on Friday, the final vote in the Congress did not take place, which ultimately contributed to the depreciation of the dollar.

Another reason for the fall of the dollar is that former adviser to Donald Trump, Michael Flynn, who was accused earlier of providing false information to the FBI, is prepared to testify against Donald Trump. If this news is confirmed, the opponents of Trump will have good reasons for initiating the impeachment procedure, which will automatically put an end to the tax reform program.

This scenario can lead to a rapid reduction in inflation expectations and will call into question the possibility of the Fed to implement the outlined plan for the growth rate in 2018, and the dollar will drop sharply against the yen and the euro. Fears remain hypothetical, but the dollar is losing momentum.

On Monday, the dynamics of the dollar will be determined. First of all, by political news related to the passage of the tax plan through the Congress and the development of the situation with Flynn. Acceptance of the tax plan is of fundamental importance in the light of approaching the date of December 8. Namely, before this date, the law on financing state institutions due to borrowing is in force.

On Tuesday, the ISM report on business activity in the services sector will be published, after a rapid growth in August-October, a slight slowdown is expected, but the level of PMI will remain high and can support the dollar.

In general, the dollar remains the favorite, and any positive news can contribute to a new wave of buying. However, one must assume that the probability of a smooth phased solution of all the issues at the beginning of this week is not very high, and therefore the growth of the euro to 1.20 appears quite certain.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 12-06-2017 05:40 AM

Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 6, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite corrective recently after a strong bearish pressure pushing the price off the 0.8150 price area. AUD had been quite mixed with the economic reports where negatives are more in quantity than positive reports for which the currency is currently struggling to gain over USD despite the current weak status of USD. Recently AUD Current Account report was published with negative figure of -9.1B from the previous figure of -9.7B though it is less than the previous figure but could not meet the expectation of much less deficit at -8.8B, Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.3% and in the Rate Statement the Cash Rate of Australia was unchanged as expected at 1.50% which did not quite helped with the gains of AUD but was able to stop the impulsive bearish pressure in the pair. Today, AUD GDP report was published with a worse value of 0.6% decrease from the previous value of 0.9% which was expected to be at 0.7%. The worse economic report did affect the currency quite well which lead to impulsive bearish pressure today. On the USD side today, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 189k from the previous figure of 235k, Revised Non-Farm Productivity is expected to increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, Revised Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit at -3.2M from the previous figure of -3.4M. The forecasts are quite mixed in nature where any better than expected economic report is expected to add to the gains of USD against AUD in the coming days. To sum up, AUD has been quite weak in comparison as it could not dominate USD in its weakest period which is expected to lead to further USD gains in the coming days if USD publishes better economic report results in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and it has worked very well as a resistance to keep the price lower. As the price is currently quite near to the support area of 0.7500-50 the bears are expected to push the price towards the support level in the coming days and any bounce or breaks off the area will lead to further directional movement in this pair. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7650 price area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.


Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 12-07-2017 06:28 AM

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 07, 2017

In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and 30-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Consumer Credit m/m, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 113.02.
Resistance. 2: 113.80.
Resistance. 1: 112.58.
Support. 1: 112.30.
Support. 2: 112.08.
Support. 3: 111.86.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 12-14-2017 04:30 AM

British income levels drop

The British pound did not pay attention to data on pay cuts in the UK from August to October of this year, and this could negatively affect retail as well as GDP growth.

Let me remind you that the fall in real incomes of citizens started last year, when the UK decided on a vote to leave the EU. According to the report, from August to October 2017 compared with the same period of last year, real wages fell by 0.4%. The unemployment rate in the UK for the same period remained unchanged at 4.3%. Economists expected a drop in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points.

As for the pound's immediate prospects, much of it will depend on the decision of the Bank of England on Thursday. Although it is projected that the regulator will leave interest rates unchanged. It will be important to know how the members of the Committee on Monetary Policy will vote for constant interest rates and quantitative easing.

If the Bank of England mentions good progress in Brexit talks during the comments, it will also benefit the British pound, which can significantly strengthen its positions against the US dollar.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, further growth is directly dependent on the breakthrough of a large resistance located in the area of 1.3375. Levels that are above 1.3425 and 1.3480 are considered good. In the event of a channel breakout in the lower limit of 1.3300, one can expect an increase in pressure on the pound with a decline towards 1.3225 and 1.3150.

Inflation data in Germany slightly affected the quotations of the European currency during the first half of Wednesday, as it coincided with the forecasts of economists.

According to a report of the statistics agency, the final consumer price index of Germany in November this year increased by 0.3% compared with October. Economists also expected the index to increase by 0.3%. As for the same period for 2016, prices have increased by 1.8% overall.

As for the important events in the afternoon, attention should be focused on the Fed hiking the interest rate, as well as a signal about what will be the acceleration of the normalization of monetary policy next year.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bulls managed to win back Tuesday's euro decline in the afternoon and returned to the intermediate level of support 1.1740 without much difficulty. While the trade is going above this range, we can count on a further upward trend for the euro with an update of 1.1775 and an exit to weekly highs around 1.1810.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 12-15-2017 04:39 AM

ECB leaves rates and economic forecast unchanged

The euro met with minimal hesitation at the key decision of the European Central Bank this week.

According to the data, the European Central Bank left the refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0%, while stating that interest rates will remain at current levels for a long time after the end of the asset purchase program.

Many experts expected that the ECB would make hints on the gradual tightening of monetary policy by the time of the completion of the curtailment of the asset repurchase program, which is scheduled for the end of next year. However, as we can see, this is not included in the plans of the ECB and there are a number of objective reasons for this. At the very least, this is the missing price pressure, which is kept quite low for quite a long time even after good economic growth in the second and third quarters of this year. The labor market in the euro area also shows growth but the rate of increase in wages is far from ideal.

The ECB also revealed that they will reinvest funds received from the redemption of bonds for a long period after the completion of the curtailment of the asset purchase program.

In the morning, preliminary data on the PMI supply managers' index for France's manufacturing sector for December came out. It rose significantly to 59.3 points versus 57.7 points in November. Economists had expected PMI for the manufacturing sector to be at 57.1 points.

A similar preliminary index of supply managers PMI for Germany's manufacturing sector for the month of December this year rose to 63.3 points against 62.5 points in November. Economists expected the index to fall to 62.1 points.

As for the euro area as a whole, the preliminary composite index of supply managers for the euro zone's PMI in December this year increased to 58.0 points with a forecast at 57.3 points, which is slightly lower than the November figure of 57.5 points. In the second half of the day, data on the US labor market came out.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week declined. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of December 3 to 9 decreased by 11,000 and amounted to 225,000. Economists predicted that the number of applications would be at 235,000.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 12-29-2017 04:35 AM

Wave analysis of the EUR / USD currency pair for December 29, 2017

Analysis of wave counting:
In a thin inter-holiday market, the EUR/USD pair was able to add about 60 pp in price and re-tested to the level of the 19th figure in the second half of yesterday. It can be assumed that the currency pair has reached the final stage of the formation of the wave c, in b, in c, in a, in (C). If this is the case, the pair can resume reduction quotes and mark the beginning of a future wave in a, and in (C) after virtually reaching the highest level achieved yesterday or after the growth to the level 1.1920-1.1930.

Objectives for building a downward wave:
1.1736 - 38.2% by Fibonacci
1.1666 - 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Goals for building an upward wave:
1.1900
1.1918 - 11.4% Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The construction of the downward trend section continues, as well as the construction of the assumed wave b, in c, in a, in (C). If this assumption is correct, the quote will resume its increase with targets around 19 figures and the mark of 1.1918. Hereinafter, a decline in quotations may resume with the targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1736 and 1.1666, corresponding to 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci, and lower.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 01-05-2018 06:17 AM

Euro and pound win back their positions against the US dollar

Good data for the euro area and the UK in the first half of the day led to a slight strengthening of the European currency and the British pound after yesterday's decline, which was noticed after the publication of the Fed's protocols.

According to the IHS Markit report, the composite PMI of the euro zone's supply managers rose to 58.1 points in December from 58.0 points. This once again confirms the fact that economic activity in the eurozone at the end of 2017 remained at a fairly strong level. This allows you to count on excellent indicators for GDP growth. Also, it is most likely that in early 2018, the current growth rate of activity will continue due to the flow of new orders.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair in the short term, the exit beyond the level of 1.2035, which I recommended to pay attention to in the morning review, led to the resumption of purchases of the European currency. The next target is a break above the monthly highs, which will lead to the renewal of new resistance levels of 1.2125 and 1.2170.

The British pound strengthened its position against the US dollar against the backdrop of good data on the service sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the UK GDP.

According to IHS Markit's report, PMI's supply managers index for the UK services sector increased to 54.2 points in December 2017 against 53.8 points in November. Economists had expected the index in December to be at 54.0 points. The IHS Markit report noted that business growth accelerated at once in all regions of the UK.

Today, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK was published for November which increased compared to October. Despite this, growth is gradually slowing down, indicating a decrease in activity in the housing market.

So, according to the Bank of England, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in November 2017 was at 65 140 against 64 890 in October. Meanwhile, the average for the last 6 months was at 66 562, indicating a likely decrease in activity. According to the Nationwide Building Society, housing prices in the UK in December last year rose by 2.6% compared with the same period in 2016.

Unsecured consumer lending in the UK also began to gradually slow down.

According to the same Bank of England, unsecured consumer lending in November 2017 grew by only 1.4 billion pounds, while economists expected a 1.6 billion pounds increase in lending. Compared to November 2016, lending grew by 9.1%.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 01-17-2018 05:23 AM

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 17, 2018

In Asia, Japan will release the Core Machinery Orders m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Beige Book, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.97.
Resistance. 2: 110.76.
Resistance. 1: 110.54.
Support. 1: 110.27.
Support. 2: 110.06.
Support. 3: 109.84.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 01-23-2018 06:32 AM

The trading plan for the US session is EUR/USD and GBP/USD

EUR/USD
To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:
Buyers are trying to get ahold of the level of 1.2252, and while the trade is higher, a chance remains for continued growth of the euro with an update of 1.2294 and the main purpose of a test at 1.2342, where I recommend locking in profits. In the event of a decline below the level of 1.2252 in the afternoon, consider new purchases of the euro after a test at the level of 1.2215, or immediately towards a rebound from 1.2169.
To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:
A return to the level of 1.2252 would be a good signal to increase short positions on the euro for the purpose of a breakdown and consolidation below the support of 1.2215, which opens a direct road to the area of 1.2169, where I recommend locking in profits. In case the euro further grows, it is possible to look for short positions after the formation of a false breakout at 1.2294 or on a rebound from 1.2342.

GBP/USD
To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required: Buyers are trying to work out a scenario in the morning in order to consolidate above 1.3886, and while the trade is at this level, you can count on continuing an upward trend with an exit towards a resistance of 1.3940. The main target remains in the area of 1.4018. In the event of a return below the level of 1.3886, I recommend that you pay attention to long positions on the pound only after a test at 1.3839.
To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:
The return at 1.3886 will signal an opening of short positions for the pound, which will lead to the renewal of daily lows in the area of 1.3839 and will likely reach a new support level of 1.3797, where I recommend locking in the profit. In case of continued growth in the pound during the afternoon, short positions can be considered for a rebound from 1.3940.

Indicator description
Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA Bollinger Bands 20

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 04-16-2018 05:45 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 16, 2018

EUR/NZD is following the expected path and is correcting. The minimum corrective target at 1.6793 has already been tested, but we expected a little more correction closer to the 1.6835 - 1.6860 area will be seen before lower again towards the ideal target near 1.6620. The test of 1.6620 will ideally complete the corrective decline from 1.7162. That said it's possible that a larger correction is developing and if this is the case, a decline to 1.6220 should be expected before a more firm bottom is in place.

R3: 1.6860
R2: 1.6820
R1: 1.6793
Pivot: 1.6736
S1: 1.6676
S2: 1.6620
S3: 1.6580

Trading recommendation:
We are looking for an EUR-selling opportunity at 1.6845.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

InstaForex Gertrude 04-20-2018 04:53 AM

Traders do not have enough reference points

The lack of benchmarks and positive fundamental statistics leads traders to a standstill. On the one hand, trading in the EURUSD pair is below a significant resistance level of 1.2395, which has repeatedly limited the upside potential in risky assets. On the other hand, there are also few who want to to sell the euro and go against the trend.

In the first half of the day, data showed that the positive balance of the current account of the euro area's balance of payments in February 2018 decreased compared to January. According to the report of the European Central Bank, the current account surplus of the balance of payments in February fell to 35.1 billion euros against 39 billion euros in January.

However, compared with February 2017, it should be noted that there was growth. As in 2017, the current account surplus of the euro area's balance of payments was at the level of 29.8 billion euros. For the period from March 2017 to February 2018, the surplus of the current account of the euro area's balance of payments totaled 408.1 billion euros.

Let me remind you that Donald Trump has been advocating a criticism of Germany, and a month ago he spoke in favor of introducing a number of trade duties on the European Union. However, up to now the case never came. The White House administration repeatedly appealed to German Chancellor Angela Merkel on insufficient efforts related to the reduction of the trade surplus with the US, but failed to receive any support.

On Thursday afternoon, a report was released from the US Department of Labor, which was ignored by the market.

According to the data, the number of Americans, who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time, fell last week. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from April 8 to 14 fell by 1,000 and was at the level of 232,000, which went against the forecasts of economists who expected the number of applications to be 225,000.

The British pound was lower against the US dollar in the morning amid weak data on retail sales, but then managed to regain its position, as traders began to digest Wednesday's report on inflation in more detail. In fact, if you understand, then there was nothing "terrible" in that report, which could cause such a speculative market reaction to the selling of the pound.

According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales in the UK in March 2018 fell 1.2% compared to the previous month. It happened against the background of bad weather. In general, the economic categories of goods and food suffered. For the 1st quarter of 2018, retail sales in the UK decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex


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