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  #11  
Old 02-01-2016, 07:51 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 1, 2016

Wave summary:
A very strong rally on Friday which took place after BOJ's decision to adopt the negative interest rate, looked impulsive and if a breakout above important resistance at 132.44 is seen, then we will change our preferred count to above. This count shows that an expanded flat correction we have been tracking since late December 2013 terminated at 126.05 in mid-April 2015 and was followed by an impulsive wave (i) to 141.04 and the decline from 141.04 to 126.14 was a very deep wave (ii). A breakout above 132.44 will call for wave (iii) higher to at least 150.16. If, however resistance at 132.44 is able to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure, the very complex corrective corrective pattern could still be unfolding.

Trading recommendation: We will await the outcome of the test of the resistance-line before making the next move.

More analysis - at instaforex.com
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  #12  
Old 02-02-2016, 06:15 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 02, 2016

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as PPI m/m, Unemployment Rate, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Unemployment Change.The US will release the economic data too such as Total Vehicle Sales, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0947.
Strong Resistance:1.0941.
Original Resistance: 1.0930.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0919.
Target Inner Area: 1.0894.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0869.
Original Support: 1.0858.
Strong Support: 1.0847.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0841.

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  #13  
Old 02-02-2016, 07:10 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 02, 2016

In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction, Monetary Base y/y and the US will release some economic data such as Total Vehicle Sales, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 121.40.
Resistance. 2: 121.16.
Resistance. 1: 120.92.
Support. 1: 120.63.
Support. 2: 120.40.
Support. 3: 120.16.

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  #14  
Old 02-03-2016, 06:21 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 03, 2016

When the European market opens, economic news on the Retail Sales m/m, Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI is due to be released.The US will deliver the economic data on the Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0970.
Strong Resistance:1.0964.
Original Resistance: 1.0953.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0942.
Target Inner Area: 1.0917.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0892.
Original Support: 1.0881.
Strong Support: 1.0870.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0864.

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  #15  
Old 02-03-2016, 07:37 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 3, 2016

Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has taken a position from where a strong rally through 1.7007 and more importantly a breakout above 1.7271 can be seen anytime now. But this scenario needs support at 1.6564 to protect the downside for a breakout above minor resistance at 1.6917 and then at 1.7007. The breakout below 1.6564 will be yet another disappointment which delays the expected rally higher closer to 1.6487 and maybe even closer to 1.6370 before higher again.

Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6837 and have placed our stop at 1.6537. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6640 or upon a breakout above 1.6780 and use the same stop at 1.6537.

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  #16  
Old 07-12-2017, 04:28 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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The market is at rest

Yesterday's data on the US and the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, did not give proper to the US dollar.

According to the report of the research group, Conference Board, the index if employment trends in the US for May of this year was revised down to 133.32 points from 133.70 points.

The growth in consumer lending in the US also indicates a stable situation in the US economy.

According to the data provided by the statistics agency, consumer lending in the US for May this year increased by $ 18.41 billion following a growth of $ 12.9 billion in the previous month of April.

Yesterday's speech by the Federal Reserve representative, John Williams, did not lead to major changes in the market.

Williams said that if inflation slows down, it will be in favor of further gradual tightening of monetary policy. This means another increase in interest rates this years is a reasonable baseline scenario.

He also noted that at the present time, there are a lot of signs that the economy is strengthening including the growth of salaries in the US which is in line with expectations. In his opinion, the US fiscal policy is on an unstable path and the reforms that the White house wants to hold will help to improve the situation.

With regard to the reduction of balance, Williams said that it makes sense to begin the normalization as soon as possible this year.

In general, the Federal Reserve representative along with his colleagues did not say anything new. Because of this, the market reaction to his statements did not follow.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, everything remains the same.

The support level at 1.381 is important since the current upward trend formed on last July 5 will depend on it. A breakthrough in this area will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a decrease in the trading instruments that are already in the support level of 1.1330. If the buyers of the European currency manage to tighten it to the middle level of the channel at 1.1410, then it is likely that the bull scenario will continue to update with the monthly highs of 1.1440 to 1.1470.

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  #17  
Old 08-08-2017, 05:22 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 08, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Mortgage Delinquencies, JOLTS Job Openings, and NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1855.
Strong Resistance:1.1848.
Original Resistance: 1.1837.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1826.
Target Inner Area: 1.1798.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1770.
Original Support: 1.1759.
Strong Support: 1.1748.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1741.

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  #18  
Old 10-25-2017, 06:09 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 25, 2017

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction and German Ifo Business Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, New Home Sales, HPI m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1815.
Strong Resistance:1.1808.
Original Resistance: 1.1797.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1786.
Target Inner Area: 1.1758.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1730.
Original Support: 1.1719.
Strong Support: 1.1708.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1701.

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  #19  
Old 11-09-2017, 04:45 AM
InstaForex Gertrude InstaForex Gertrude is offline
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Gold recalled its old ties

The uncertainty surrounding the tax reform, the growth of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the visit of Donald Trump to Asia allowed the bulls in gold to restrain their opponents who are on the offensive. There were rumors in the market that the start of the transformation of the fiscal system in the US could be postponed for a year due to the fact that the US economy is in good shape. If you add an incentive to this, it will increase the risks of overshooting inflation and a future recession. Given its current position, there is no certainty that the reform will be passed through the Congress: Democrats criticize the bill because of the losses of the middle class, while the number of dissatisfied Republicans is increasing. In general, the revision of the tax system is seen as a "bullish" factor for gold. Therefore, the problems with its implementation allows buyers of the XAU/USD to strike a counterattack.

Investors have raised their share of haven assets in portfolios, looking at events in the Middle East. The mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, the attack on Riyadh by rebels from Yemen, the conflict between Turkey and Kurdistan, and the dissatisfaction of Donald Trump with decisions of his predecessors on Iran's nuclear program have pushed up oil and bond prices. The yield of the latter is under pressure, which, due to the existing correlation, has a positive effect on precious metals.

Dynamics of gold and yield of US bonds

Source: Trading Economics.

An additional factor in supporting gold is U.S. President Donald Trump's tour in Asia. In Japan, Trump has already tickled the nerves of local businessmen, accusing them of non-commercial and non-mutually beneficial trade. In China, the US president raised the issue of ending its economic ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, which certainly provoked North Korea's discontent. Let me remind you that one of the most important drivers of almost 12% of the XAU/USD rally since the beginning of the year have been geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula and the US protectionist policy.

At the same time, from the point of view of macroeconomics, the precious metal's situation is not the best. While the euro area and Japan's GDP are growing above the trend, the US economy has been expanding by 3% or more for two consecutive quarters, and is also prepared to increase the rate. In the case of tax reform, investors prefer risky assets. Moreover, global inflation is characterized by sluggish growth. In this scenario, real world market rates have the prerequisites for a movement upwards, which should be considered as a "bearish" factor for XAU/USD.

In my opinion, the situation in the Middle East will soon stabilize, and the absence of conflicts with North Korea and the passage of tax reform through the Congress would raise the demand for the US dollar and return the quotes of precious metals futures for a downward short-term trend.

A technically successful test of the upper limit of the consolidation range at $1262-1281 per ounce will increase the risks of rising gold prices towards $1,299 and $1,320. On the other hand, a breakthrough of support at $1262 will allow the "bears" to count on the implementation of the targets for 161.8% and 200% for the AB=CD pattern.

Gold, daily chart

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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  #20  
Old 11-10-2017, 04:52 AM
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European Commission report helped the euro

The euro rose against the US dollar after the release of a report from the European Commission, in which the forecasts for GDP growth and lower unemployment were revised in a positive way.

In the first half of the day, recent data indicated growth in Germany's foreign trade balance, even despite the decline in exports, as imports decreased even more compared to the previous month.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, Germany's exports in September 2017 declined by 0.4% compared to August, while imports fell 1.0%.

Germany's foreign trade surplus with revision amounted to 21.8 billion euros against 21.3 billion dollars in the previous month.

On Thursday, the Bank of France released a report, which indicated that the eurozone's second largest economy might grow by 0.5% at the end of this year. Good support by the end of the year can be provided by France's manufacturing sector and the services sector.

As I mentioned above, the report of the European Commission was published on Thursday, according to which the eurozone GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.7%. In 2018, the economy could grow by 2.1% against the previous forecast of 1.8%, and in 2019 predicts the growth of the eurozone's GDP at 1.9%.

There are also good moments that can be found in the labor market. Economists expect unemployment in the eurozone in 2017 to drop to the level of 9.1% against the previous forecast of 9.4%. In 2018, the same indicator should decrease to 8.5% against the previous forecast of 8.9%, and in 2019 will drop to the level of 7.9%.

According to the European Commission, at present, the eurozone is on track for its fastest economic growth in a decade, while in the labor market there is still a weak wage growth and a significant amount of unused resources.

However, everything is not so positive when it comes to inflation. The report was revised for the worse. The European Commission forecasts inflation in the euro area at 1.5% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.6%. In 2018, inflation is expected at 1.4% against the previous forecast of 1.3%, and in 2019 the level is set at 1.6%.

The sharp growth in the euro in the first half of this year forced economists to revise their forecasts, and the curtailment of the mitigation program and incentive measures could further hurt the inflationary picture, which the European Central Bank pays close attention to.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex
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